Aster price

Written by: tradinghoe Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News Confidence is the most important quality of a successful trader. You must be able to trade in the same direction or against the market according to your beliefs. Don't be the denominator of the market Back in the 1950s, Solomon Ashe conducted a series of experiments on how individuals can change their views to better conform to the group. In these experiments, actors pretend that segments of unequal length are of equal length to see if a single non-hired actor would simply follow the consensus of the group. About 33% of the time, test subjects accept clearly wrong claims made by actors. The purpose of this experiment is to show how susceptible we as humans are to consensus, even when we know the truth is the opposite of consensus. Obviously, this experiment has many similarities with trading. Axi experimented with many line segments Spiral down: When there is a crack in confidence The loss of faith does not come with a catastrophic moment, it is gradually eroded. You begin to doubt the deals that you would have trusted without hesitation before. You see an opportunity in advance; The charts look good, the narrative is taking shape, the fundamentals are aligning, and the crowd is still behind to support it, but something is holding you back. Then you watch the market start and you miss it. You are caught in a spiral of self-doubt. This creates a vicious circle that looks like this: Missed opportunities → Weakened confidence → More hesitation → More missed opportunities → Further erosion of self-confidence You are not making a bad trade, you are avoiding any trade. Or worse, your position is so small that even if you do it right, it will have little effect on your account equity. You become a spectator in your trading career, watching others preemptively trade the first targets you find. What is the most brutal part? You know that the deal is good, the narrative exists, and it's a shiny new thing. Your analysis is reliable, but you just can't trust yourself enough to act. Confidence → Belief → Capital There is a ripple effect that separates successful traders from perpetual spectators: Confidence breeds faith. Without confidence, you can't commit. The opportunity is there, everything is in order, you've seen this play out the same way before, but you just can't pull the trigger. Your hand hangs over the buy button, and then you convince yourself to give up. "Maybe I'll wait for confirmation." "Let me see if anyone else is discussing this." "What if I'm wrong?" Confidence separates signals from noise. When you trust your judgment, you can hold on to it during the development stage, which most people on crypto Twitter didn't find out at the time; You are waiting for them to keep up with this new narrative. You are early because you have the conviction to act while others are still watching. It's been a long time. What most traders don't realize is that most narratives don't come out in a fully formed way. They do not arise out of thin air, but also carry a neat bow. Someone has to be the first to step up The birth of a narrative follows a simple formula: Shiny new things + first confident voice + opportunistic traders = narrative formation. Review and study any of the major narratives driving the market. AI Meta (e.g. GOAT), meme coins on Solana/BSC, RWA gameplay. gaming ecosystems (such as footballdotfun), and even the current x402 token. Each one starts with someone discovering a token, posting about it on X or their channel, and having the confidence to say "this is it" before anyone else cares. That forerunner doesn't have more information than you, they don't have insider information. They have more confidence. They are willing to make mistakes openly and are willing to get ahead of everyone on an argument that is not yet obvious. Representatives of cycles are born through public trading Look at the representatives of any cycle, those who everyone follows to get alpha, those who are highly respected, those who can move the market as soon as a certain token code is released. Most of them have cemented their reputations through an absolutely legendary public deal, which they called out early and held on to phenomenal gains along the way. They buy it, they talk about it, they're right, and then suddenly everyone wants to know what they're buying next. Take the judgment of Ansem and Solana as an example Ansem was one of the first to spot Solana's potential and is known for its relentless shoutouting. When you hear about the guy who bought SOL at $1 and held it all the way to $200, you immediately think of Ansem. Ansem shouts at $1 to Solana Ansem isn't just silently buying SOL and hoping it's right. He talks about it non-stop, he sells the positions he holds, he articulates his arguments publicly, and he takes the social risk that can go wrong when the entire population is bearish. He didn't trade in the shadows. SOL went from single digits to over $200, Solana's meme ecosystem exploded, and the tokens he shouted early on rose 50x, 100x, some even more, and Ansem became one of the most followed traders of that cycle; Not because he is smarter than others, but because he has the conviction to speak out loud when things are not obvious. This is how representatives are born. A public transaction, great faith, and a willingness to make mistakes in plain sight. At the same time, most traders open positions and then wonder why they are losing money when they can't even say what they bought or why. They trade in the shadows, following the representatives, without reaping the benefits of openly building their beliefs. If you can't explain your argument to others, do you really have an argument? Or are you just strafing and praying? Someone has to sell their own coins Here's a disturbing truth: sometimes you have to buy a coin and tell someone. Because how could they buy if they didn't know? The narrative needs momentum, and the momentum needs attention. Attention requires someone who is willing to be the first to stand up, to speak up, to take the risk of saying "this is it" when things are not obvious. If @0xmert_ can pitch ZEC to his entire timeline, what prevents you from talking about the coins you buy? The difference between a token you buy and nothing improves and a token that becomes a narrative is not always fundamental. Sometimes it's simply because no one talks about it, no one creates social proof, no one puts it on the radar of other traders. The reason you always miss the narrative early is because you are waiting for someone else to create them without realizing that you can be that person. Think about it, every coin that skyrockets out of thin air, has the first buyer, the first person to tweet about it, and the first trader who takes a risk betting on something unproven and says, "I think this might be a bit of a mess." The main question is not whether you can find a good deal. The question is whether you have the conviction to be the first, to be the one who speaks up, and to bear the consequences anyway. That's where your strengths lie. Confidence controls the size of your position There is an invisible advantage here that separates great traders from mediocre traders: knowing when to increase positions and when to reduce them. This is not from a spreadsheet or Kelly formula calculator. It comes from experience in pattern recognition + confidence in acting on it. When you have made hundreds of trades, when you have witnessed tokens rise 10 times and have seen them run away, when you have passed earlier and late, when you have won a large position and lost a large position; You develop an intuition. You know in your bones what faith feels like. Take the first meme coin in the new ecosystem gameplay, for example You've witnessed this pattern unfold over multiple cycles. A new chain launches or gains momentum, and within a few days or weeks, a meme coin emerges as the cultural flagship of the ecosystem. It first attracted attention and became synonymous with the chain itself. Trillions on the Plasma chain The first leading meme coin on the Plasma chain. If you've gained pattern recognition from previous ecosystem launches, you know this routine. Your advantage here will be to open a position early enough at a low cost or to put in a position at a reasonable market capitalization where there is still room to rise. Ping on the X402 ecosystem In the same pattern, the X402 ecosystem launched, the hype slowly accumulated, and Ping emerged as a meme coin that grabbed attention. Take the "Hunger and Thirst Play" mode as an example The market goes through dry periods, with no main narrative, no clear entries, and traders are hungry, bored, and have nowhere to deploy their cash in hand. Then something good enough appeared; Not perfect, but believable. Because everyone is thirsty for a way to play, liquidity pours in quickly. $$Aster and $$AVNT are perfect examples. After a period of lack of major gameplay for traders, it was discovered that these could be high-liquidity competitors on different chains. It's not just fundamentals, it's the timing of its appearance. Traders are ready to deploy their money on something with a narrative. There is also a first-mover advantage in new technologies Each cycle introduces new mechanisms, new protocols, new ways to financialize things that didn't exist before. And every time, the first credible implementation of a new technology captures a lot of attention and funding. Take Token strategy launch The protocol introduced DATS (Decentralized Autonomous Tokens), a mechanism for financializing blue-chip NFTs for NFT collections. PunkStrategy is the first strategy coin launched from an experiment related to CryptoPunks. If you identify this pattern (first implementation of a new technology + blue-chip NFT brands + novel mechanics that traders have never seen before), you know it's worth investing in larger positions. $PNKSTR's market capitalization rose to over $300 million. Why? Because it is the first DAT launched by Token Strategy. It has the credibility behind the CryptoPunks brand. It is something new that traders are able to understand and are willing to rush into. By the time the second or third NFT DAT is launched, the novelty has disappeared and the returns have been significantly compressed. Confident traders sometimes don't need to understand the technology perfectly. They just need to realize, "This is the first credible implementation of something new, and it's worth investing in." A confident trader can instantly assess: "This is a 0.5% position" versus "This is a 5% position, maybe more." You're not just gambling, you're calibrating based on accumulated wisdom and trusting yourself to execute. When confidence is intact, you trust your own judgment. When confidence collapses, everything feels like the same vague bet. You open all positions very small (or not at all) because you no longer believe in your ability to distinguish between high conviction opportunities and marginal opportunities. In your mind, every transaction becomes a coin toss, even if your analysis tells you otherwise. Your advantage doesn't just come from finding a deal, it comes from knowing how much money to invest. Rebuild: Advantages before losing money The market is always there, the money is always there, but if you lose your advantage; That is, your belief in your ability to identify opportunities and act on them, then you have lost the game before you lose all your money. Before you can fix your profit and loss curve, you must rebuild your confidence: Make small, high-conviction trades Not to make money, but to prove to yourself that you are still capable of execution. You are retraining your brain to trust your judgment again. Record your transactions Separate results from decision quality. A good deal that loses money is still a good deal. A bad deal that makes money is still a bad deal. Focus on the trade execution itself. Your trading journal can be a Telegram channel created just for yourself, or your X account to record your transactions and ideas; Some good examples are @DidiTrading, @onchainsorcerer, @real_y22 (100,000 to 1 million challenges). Celebrate the right execution, even if the trade turns out badly Your position is the right size. You have a basis for judgment, you manage risk. This is a victory and an experience gain, regardless of profit or loss. Remember, every trader you respect has been in your current situation. Everyone has experienced a crisis of confidence, self-doubt, and paralysis. The difference is that they have regained their confidence. They decided to trust their execution, even if it didn't feel comfortable, and they made a deal they would otherwise have avoided. When their inner fear whispered to reduce their positions, they increased their positions instead. They preemptively acted and executed their deals, without waiting for confirmation from the crowd. They see both winning and losing trades as experiences gained. The advantage you lose long before you lose money is the only advantage that really matters. Protect it like you would your portfolio. Because it is.